We made three predictions for the Channel Islands office market at the start of 2026. A few months in, it’s a timely reminder that any attempt of forecasting is a thankless task!
The macro backdrop has shifted considerably since we published, rate cuts have given way to talk of static or even rate hikes, an energy shock has weighed on growth, and gilt yields are at post-GFC highs. Long-term property decisions have yet again become harder!
Yet the occupational story here in Jersey remains compelling. Prime vacancy in sits at just 1.5%, live demand stands at 210,000 sq ft, and refurbished second-generation space is now transacting at £40+ psf. Rising construction costs make new supply harder to deliver, reinforcing, not undermining, the rental trajectory.
Our three predictions stand:
1️⃣ A landmark prime headline rent of £55 psf
2️⃣ New prime development unlocked via pre-let commitments
3️⃣ Improved secondary office take-up
The macro noise makes timing harder to call. But supply/demand fundamentals this tight tend should cut through.
